Trade Like an O’Neil Disciple: How We Made 18,000% in the Stock Market (Wiley Trading)

5 Responses to “Trade Like an O’Neil Disciple: How We Made 18,000% in the Stock Market (Wiley Trading)”

1. Trends Catcher says:

   October 3, 2010 at 7:07 am

   Review by Trends Catcher for Trade Like an O’Neil Disciple: How We Made 18,000% in the Stock Market (Wiley Trading)
   Rating:
   This book is an excellent addition to the CANSLIM literature. To understand this book’s place in the grand scheme of trading literature, I have to digress first.

   If you have been trading for a few years and have read some of the classic literature on trading (e.g., Market Wizards series), you know that the vast majority of successful traders are trend followers. The objective of trend followers is to capture trends in markets with limited risk. The rules of trading that all trend followers stick to are letting profit run, cutting losses short, and manage risk.

   O’Neil is in his core a trend follower. He suggests cutting losses at 7-8% or less. Once he latches onto a big trend, he sits tight with the trend until the trend runs its full course (e.g., his trades in Chrysler, Syntex, Pic `N Save, Amgen, Charles Schwab, AOL, Sun Microsystems, EBAY, and more recently in AAPL). O’Neil also manages risk of his trades by rigorous stock selection, broad market timing, and position sizing.

   How good is O’Neil? According to some accounts, O’Neil has an average annul return of over 40% for nearly half a century (1962 – present). That’s better than anyone else with such a long-term track record. His numbers are better than those of Warren Buffet’s, Peter Lynch’s, and even George Soros’. Some have argued that given O’Neil’s great rate of return over such a long period, why then isn’t he as rich as Buffet or Soros? The answers are: 1. Although O’Neil is indeed very rich (2 Billion plus according to some accounts), O’Neil doesn’t put all his capital in the market. 2. O’Neil doesn’t trade other people’s money, thus he doesn’t have the leverage that Buffet and Soros have had. 3. O’Neil started with five thousand dollars, while most other big guns started with a lot more money, either theirs, or other people’s money. 4. O’Neil’s trading style doesn’t allow him to trade multi-billion dollars – imagine selling 1 millions shares of a small stock at the market when your stop loss is hit! So, for whatever reasons, O’Neil is not as rich as Buffet or Soros on paper. But what the dickens does that matter to you? If you are reading this review, chances are you are a small fish, most of you may just want to make a little extra money to supplement your regular salary, some more ambitious may want to make enough money consistently in the market so that you can “trade for a living”, and still a few, like myself, strive to “make millions” – So, the fact O’Neil is not as rich as Buffet or Soros shouldn’t bother you. Because in your and my league, that is, the league of traders who manage the amount of money ranges from thousands to a few hundred millions, the best long-standing player is William O’Neil.

   In stock trading, the most reliable and confirming indicator suggesting lasting power of a leading stock with superior relative strength is that in its same industry group, there are one or more other leading stocks demonstrating similar superior relative strength (remember DRYS, TBSI, and TNH all moved at the same time, then POT, MOS, CF, TRA all moved at the same time, then FSLR, SPWRA, TSL, STP, CSIQ all moved at the same time?). Thus, using this analogy, if a host of traders out of the same group (O’Neil’s group, in the broader sense, the trend-following crowd), using largely similar strategies, all achieved superior results, then there must be something special about this group. The only difference is that all the leading stocks will finally top out and become the best shorts while the best traders get better and spawn another crop of superior traders.

   Take a look at this long list of some of the best traders spawned by O’Neil’s teaching: David Ryan (of Market Wizards fame, 1985, 1986, and 1987 US Investment Champion, with performance numbers of 161%, 160%, and 118% for those 3 years, respectively), Cedd Moses (1991 US Investing Champion, 379%), and Lee Freestone (1991 US Investing Championship, second place, 279%, 1992 US Investing Championship, second place again, 120%, and 1994 US Investing Champion – first place finally, 234%). Rumor has it that Mark Minervini (of Stock Market Wizards fame) also worked for or was [more likely] heavily influenced by O’Neil and David Ryan. According to Jack Schwager, Minervini’s average annual compounded return between 1995 and 1999 was 220 percent, including his 155% first place finish in the 1997 US Investing Championship.

   Kacher and Morales, the authors of this book, are two more recent outstanding students of O’Neil’s. Kacher’s performance numbers: from 1996 to 2002, 110% per year for 7 years (could have been much higher had he decided to fully use his available capital, also remember he has included in the two and half years of the great bear market at the beginning of this century). Jil Morales’ performance numbers: from 1998 to 2005: 80% per year for 8 years (excellent numbers given that a large chunk of this timeframe falls right into a once-in-a-life time bear market).

   So, Kacher and Morales’ numbers speak for themselves – they are among the best. They are like the leading stocks from the No 1 industry group! So, their book is a must “long” for any serious trader.

   That’s why I had placed a pre-order several months ago before the book was published and as soon as pre-orders became being allowed. So far, I have gone through the book only twice, and already liked it. The meat of the book, in my opinion, is Chapter 5 and Chapter 7. Chapter 7 discusses the Dr K’s Market Direction Model, which is Kacher’s formalization and refinement of O’Neil’s concepts of using follow-through days to identify general market (a.k.a, broad market indices, such as the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500) bottoms and using cluster of distribution days to identify general market tops. Chapter 5 discusses entry points that are different from, and supplementary to, the classic O’Neil new high breakout of the nine or so O’Neil patterns (e.g., cup and handle, double bottom, flat base, and others). I don’t know if these newly introduced “pocket pivot” are indeed very efficacious patterns with superior Risk/Reward ratio and reasonable reliability – but the concept is certainly interesting and one should check them out and back-test them thoroughly before applying these new concepts to his/her own trading. I find the buying-gap-ups entry more useful but once again I need to do more research myself before I can decide if or how I should incorporate it into my trading. I personally find the Dr K’s Market Direction Model chapter most interesting, because I have been trying to do the same thing in the past few years. So, this chapter, plus Chapter 2, which Kacher describes how he made 180 times of his capital in 7 years using this model and individual stocks selection, will be most helpful to my evolution as a trader. Given any kind of decent seminar nowadays costs the trader thousands of dollars and more, and any mistakes in the market cost even more, I’d say the book is worth many times over its nominal price.

   Of course, the book is not perfect; nothing about the market is perfect because the market is not perfect. I agree with the previous reviewer’s (Chandra Sekhar) comment that the writing can be improved. There are some inconsistencies of thoughts. For example, at the beginning of Chapter 7, page 226, the authors say that “while a market direction model may seem like a `timing model’, we do not ascribe that term to it, since it does not adequately describe our approach in using such a model. A market direction model, in contrast to a timing model, should be… “. I bet anyone who is reading this would assume that the authors meant to say that market direction model is not equal to market timing model, however, the terms “market direction model” and “timing model” are used interchangeably throughout this Chapter and especially in Chapter 2, where the author would say “my timing model sheds much light on the character of the market” on one page (Page 35), and then one page later say “My market direction model is almost always on a buy signal during such times (Page 37). So, after having perused the relevant sections 3 or 4 times, I still don’t know what the difference between “Market Direction Model” and “Timing Model” is. Overall after reading the book, I think they are the same, but the author seems to have especially pointed out they are not identical – I am still confused.

   Also, I wish that Kacher could have been more transparent and been less ambiguous about the rules and construction of his market direction model. But I assume that this model is proprietary and its full construction is not intended to be fully disclosed to the public.

   In addition, as the previous reviewer (Chandra Sekhar) hinted, Morales’ trading of CUBE using a shipload of call options is not something that the readers of this book should aspire to. One of the most confusing aspects of the market is that in it, there are good trades, there are bad trades, there are wining trades, and there are losing trades. And they are not the same thing. A winning trade could be a bad trade. And in the case of Morales’s hugely winning 1995 CUBE call options trade that increased his capital by 500% (not 1000% as the previous reviewer said) it was actually a bad trade. Why, because Morales could have lost all his money and would never be able to trade again. So from a long-term survival point of view, this trade is a bad trade, because he obviously overtraded, meaning, had he repeatedly position-sized like that(seems that he betted all his trading capital on that trade), very soon, he would have been wrong and could have lost everything. However, I am glad that Morales survived a potential disaster (partially based on skills, but largely due to luck), developed himself into a more disciplined trader (otherwise either his numbers would be astronomical or he wouldn’t be here), and now can share with us his trading experience and techniques.

   So, despite the minor flaws mentioned above, all in all it is an excellent book. The book will help traders in general understand how other traders achieve their super performance and help CANSLIM traders in particular gain a deeper understanding of the O’Neil strategy. The authors share with us some techniques that they developed. By going through all the trading examples and trying to grasp the thought processes behind their writing and their trading examples, I’ve confirmed and validated some ideas that I independently came up with (e.g., there must be more ways to get into a trend than just O’Neil style base breakouts and 50-day MA entry), which are somewhat similar to the authors’. While the various gems throughout the text are valuable, the opportunities this book lends to confirming one’s own ideas with the ideas of some of the world’s top CANSLIM traders is invaluable.

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2. Pradeep Bonde says:

   October 3, 2010 at 7:20 am

   Review by Pradeep Bonde for Trade Like an O’Neil Disciple: How We Made 18,000% in the Stock Market (Wiley Trading)
   Rating:
   In a year around 40 to 50 books on trading are published, I read most of them, there are very few which have actionable trading ideas and can help you enhance your trading skills. Trade Like an O’Neil Disciple: How We Made 18,000% in the Stock Market is one of the best books I have read in recent years. I am already reading it second time and taking extensive notes.
   
   If you are growth/ IBD/ momentum/ CANSLIM kind investor you will find practical ideas and some new ways of entering and exiting trades. You will also learn how explosive returns are possible under right circumstances using those methods.
   
   The book also goes in to details of short selling and has couple of good short selling strategies.
   
   The book is not for beginners and those looking for simple methods without much effort, you need to have some foundation about growth and momentum investing before appreciating and understanding it.
   
   A must buy for growth/momentum investor who want explosive returns..

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3. John the Optimist says:

   October 3, 2010 at 7:39 am

   Review by John the Optimist for Trade Like an O’Neil Disciple: How We Made 18,000% in the Stock Market (Wiley Trading)
   Rating:
   I do not believe the title above is too presumptuous. I truly believe that this is one of the great, classic, must-read books for stock speculators. I have read most, if not all, of the great stock market investment books, and this book certainly qualifies for the short-list. Anyone who has read William O’Neil’s books and trades using his techniques must read this book!

   I am going to have to go back now and re-read this with a fine-tooth comb and take copious notes on all of the techniques and strategies. As others have discussed, the authors give excellent, honest accounts of the authors’ remarkable trading experiences and their priceless personal interactions with William O’Neil.

   Additionally, I applaud the authors for their frequent use of marked-up charts to accompany the text. These frequent examples really bring the concepts they are teaching home in a visual manner so that the reader’s confidence in the particular technique is constantly being improved. Several examples using different stocks are provided, both graphically and verbally, so that there are lots of opportunities to pick up the nuances of each technique. Also, the charts are remarkably legible. I didn’t have to get out my magnifying glass to read all the details.

   This book is a steal at this price when you consider that seminars that teach this kind of material cost thousands of dollars. Moreover, some of the material in this book is not currently available at all in any seminars to my knowledge. In fact, this is the only place that I believe some of this previously proprietary trading information has ever been published. The chapters on pocket-pivot purchases and sell rules are worth at least ten times your purchase price.

   Thank you Mr. Morales and Dr. Kacher for this spectacular work! Your genius truly shines through.
   

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4. Chandra Sekhar says:

   October 3, 2010 at 7:40 am

   Review by Chandra Sekhar for Trade Like an O’Neil Disciple: How We Made 18,000% in the Stock Market (Wiley Trading)
   Rating:
   CONGRATULATIONS:
   
   Hats off for a great job by the authors. The authors have 18000% certified returns, so better everyone listen to what they have to say.

   TARGET AUDIENCE:
   
   I am assuming the The authors wrote the book for common man like me , someone who is juggling between a stressful job, dropping and picking kids, lacking time in general, cannot spend more than few hours a week on stock analysis. This book ,I assume is by and large for Individual investors ( for Fulltime traders, they should have all sorts of tools,training,seminars,managers,guides and mentors)

   FLAW:
   
   One inherent, in fact fatal flaw in the book is that it makes believe someone that investing is easy. The book has examples of several mistakes done by the authors and their peers but I don’t think it insists enough on the risks of investing . One of the 1000% returns was buying calls – that will draw beginners like cat to fried fish,and get fried. While 1000% gain in calls in not a crime,but not properly explaining the dangers of Options which is almost certain to be a loss maker.

   Another trade was Verisign/Oracle where he explains to get on the wave and ride as long as possible.. For beginners getting on a wave is nothing but impulse buying… Words like Page 65 like “In My View,if I can do it, anyone can” are dangerous motivational theme requesting someone to swim in Ocean because he was good in swimming in a swimming pool.

   A CLASSIC TRADE – REVIEWED:
   
   For a beginner, Verisign /Oracle trade might be a mousetrap, because they are not going to follow the rules. But that is only one part of the story. If you have the basics in order, Look at the one example trade of Verisign. It has all the plot of a Hyena hunting a deer.

   BEFORE BUYING : (Bought at $60ish and sold at $140ish in few months)
   
   > Watching closely.
   
   > Verisign up 12 of 15 days
   
   > Triple digit sales growth prior quarters.It is dot com era where sales growth was the only criteria
   
   >Waiting to ride the bull.
   
   > Verisign First breakout failed and fell to 50 day Moving average, because the bird was ready,but
   
   the weather, the overall market condition was not ready. So did not buy.

   PURCHASE DECISION:
   
   > The second attempt of Verisign to fly up in the sky in a perfect whether where the market had gotten
   
   to a confirmed rally survived with heavy volume breakout.
   
   > Importance of buying at “line of least resistance”

   RULES TO FULLY CAPITALIZE ON THE Purchase:
   
   > If your stock went up 20% in three weeks or less, you must hold it for 8 weeks (unless stopped out).
   
   > The stock hugs along the 10 day Moving average
   
   > Mere mortals would have sold on the first hint of a reversal ,but the light volume reversal at $140
   
   (+20% 8 Week Rule) helped avoid selling it.
   
   > It was right decision, stock dumped week hands and continue to to Rally.

   SELLING DECISION:
   
   > Improper double bottom “W” with peak warning potential danger.
   
   > Many stocks topping out ( Mar 2000)
   
   > Huge Volume gap down.

   How many more practical lesson can 10 pages of a book give you? (and the book is 360 pages Long)

   SUGGESTIONS:
   
   BEGINNERS : If you are a part time trader and in a loss or barely breaking even, this book should be read after reading Dr. Alexander Elder’s books Trading for a Living: Psychology, Trading Tactics, Money Management and Come Into My Trading Room: A Complete Guide to Trading. Please read my detailed reviews about it for additional details. Also read the book written by Oniel, the mentor for the authors. How to Make Money in Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times and Bad, Fourth Edition

   EARLY STAGE / AMATEURS / SEMI PROFESSIONALS :
   
   If you have gotten past the beginner stage, then you will have to read the book in blocks of few chapters (or 50 pages), read the same chapters again and then move to the next set of chapters (or next set of 50 pages). The reason is that the book is packed with information and several examples are built on top of previous descriptions ( example Pivot Pocket buy, What constitutes a violation of price that confirms selling).

   Make notes. Open up your favorite stock, see if you had followed the rules mentioned in the book, At what price would you have bought? What would have been your reaction during a pullback, At what price would you have sold etc?.

   Read chapter5 again and again. That is the most important portion of the book.If you have read many other financial books, you can safely skip the last chapter(s) as well.

   MEDIOCRE WRITING:
   
   The authors are legendary traders,but certainly mediocre writers.The first chapter “Evolution of Excellence” is an eyesore to read. Every Line has a reference to where it is picked up from including Page numbers,edition numbers etc.Why cant they give those information in the last index section. Here are few Examples
   
   > (Richard Wyckoff,How I trade and Invest in Stocks & Bonds[New York: The magazine of Wall Street, 1924]159-160),
   
   > ‘How can I make quick money in Law or surgery?”‘(Jesse Livermore, How to trade in stocks[Greenville:Traders Press,1991]15).
   
   >Don’t dabble in stocks. Dig in and do some Detective work – William O’Neil,How to make money in stocks,2nd ed(New York:McGraw-Hill,1995),34

   The book is an information packed textbook (without much humor and is certainly not a fun read)

   CONCLUSION:
   
   I hope to read this book again and again understanding that it has some inherent flaws that should be overlooked.I would be happy with a 18% returns.

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5. IBDcrazy says:

   October 3, 2010 at 8:01 am

   Review by IBDcrazy for Trade Like an O’Neil Disciple: How We Made 18,000% in the Stock Market (Wiley Trading)
   Rating:
   A very good book on CANSLIM. Read quickly once as I couldn’t keep it down. This was on my long plan trip. Started the second round. I echo some of the other reviewers concern especially Chandra. A must read for CANSLIM followers. Why 4-STAR, not sure why these disciples didn’t use DGO charts, it really annoyed me. The charts lacks RS line info at the pocket pivot point. Some of the paragraph are so confusing and I couldn’t understand what they are trying to say or are they saying they are better than WON. The author says “my model” but it is basically WON’s – CAN-”M”-SLIM. Which I can’t accept. This book title might be misleading for newcomers to think making money is easy and an overnight rich scheme. It is not so. Lot of hard work, patience and most important market trend is needed. Otherwise it is one of my BEST books I love to read again and again…why, for CANSLIM believers, this book has several subtle details or read between lines to understand what goes through in your mind.

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